jan’s thoughts

Swimming Against the Current

In the ever-churning world of business, I’ve often found myself pondering the road less travelled. It’s not about being a contrarian for the sake of it, but rather about questioning the herd mentality that seems to dominate so much of our industry. This got me thinking about anti-cyclical business strategies - approaches that go against the prevailing economic or market trends.

The Contrarian’s Dilemma

Let’s face it: following the crowd is comfortable. It’s what business schools often teach, what others might expect from you, and what can help you sleep at night. But comfort isn’t always the path to growth or innovation.

I’ve noticed that when everyone rushes to invest in the latest tech bubble, there’s often overlooked value in unfashionable industries. While others frantically cut costs during a recession, there might be opportunities for cautious expansion. It’s not about being contrary for the sake of it, but about trying to see potential where others might not be looking.

The Anti-Cyclical Mindset

Thinking anti-cyclically isn’t just a strategy; it’s a way of approaching problems. It involves:

  1. Patience: Sometimes waiting for the right moment when everyone else has given up.
  2. Courage: Being willing to invest (time or money) when others are running scared.
  3. Vision: Attempting to see potential in areas others have written off.

It’s not always easy. Sometimes, you feel like you’re the only one who doesn’t get the memo. But that feeling of swimming against the current can also be oddly invigorating.

The Consultant’s Perspective

As a consultant, I’ve found that offering a different perspective can be valuable. When everyone else is saying the same thing, there’s often room for a voice that asks, “But what if…?”

Your clients might not always agree with you, but they might appreciate a fresh viewpoint. In a world where consultants often seem interchangeable, offering a unique perspective can be memorable.

The Risks (because there are always risks)

It’s important to note that this approach isn’t without its dangers. Swimming against the current can be exhausting. Sometimes, you’ll miss out on genuine opportunities because you’re too focused on being different. The key, I’ve found, is to be thoughtful and critical, not contrarian for its own sake.

Reflecting on the Anti-Cyclical Approach

For those considering a more anti-cyclical approach, here are some thoughts:

  1. Do your homework. Being contrarian doesn’t mean being uninformed.
  2. Build a strong network. You’ll need sounding boards when you’re considering unconventional moves.
  3. Be patient. Going against the grain often takes time to pay off.
  4. Stay flexible. Don’t stick to a strategy just because it’s different.
  5. Trust your instincts, but verify with data.

Final Thoughts

In a world often obsessed with following trends, taking a step back and considering alternative approaches can be refreshing. It’s not about being different for the sake of it, but about trying to see opportunities that others might overlook.

The next time you’re in a meeting and everyone’s nodding in agreement, it might be worth asking, “What if we looked at this differently?” You never know where that question might lead.

Remember, sometimes the best way to move forward is to start by taking a step back and questioning assumptions.


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